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Augsburg vs Union Berlin

Fri 23 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 7 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Augsburg win: 39.9%

Draw: 27.8%

Union Berlin win: 32.3%

Predicted: Augsburg

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 61.7%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 62.6%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.86

More corners: Augsburg (58.7% home / 41.3% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Augsburg

Yes

Probability Augsburg wins or draws: 63.6%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (40.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (62.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (63.0% model probability) High

Corners Augsburg (more corners) (59.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Augsburg win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (64.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.